I guess long sequences of text nowadays get you flagged as a bot. But which sentence in my analysis makes you believe I am one in particular, I thought I just wrote about the countries in the region and effects?

Israel has a very different stance to Russia than NATO.

I do not know much about the Status of Russia military bases in Syria (Tartus). Where can I find updates on this?

It happened: strikes on Irans capital and nuclear facilities 🇮🇱. Here follows my analysis and the consequences for involved nearby countries. The main difference between this war and the Russia Ukraine war: Buffer states like Syria and Iraq are between the 2 countries at war, as Iran and Israel have no direct land borders. Furthermore it is insanely hard to to march Infantry masses across these flat desert buffer countries landscape without being spotted by satellites or drones. Syria and Iraq will sustain some damage, as they host pro Iran militia forces and some IS terror cells. This war will cost a lot of rocket-fuel, as the distance between Iran and Israel cities are bigger than those from Ukraine to Russia.

So I predict this will be mostly a war of long range strike- and special forces secret service commando assets in which Israel has an advantage in my assessment. Iran might enrich Uranium further, but only as a gesture, not really a useful outcome for them ☢.

🇸🇦 Saudi-Arabia will profit from this: Its sales of oil will grow, while Iran refinery capacity will be destroyed 🛢 . Russia might benefit indirectly from this with its oil sales to Asia (India and China) and a growing oil price. NATO countries will divert some long range strike assets and artillery munitions to Israel at first to strengthen it, as the US has already sent air defense assets purposed for Ukraine to the middle east theater. But with a defeated Iran Russia will loose power in the middle east and the Caspian-Sea. Azerbaijan and Afghanistan might profit from this as well, their borders with the isolationist mullah regime might become more brittle enabling more sanction avoiding smuggling and small export industry.

The US will benefit from this war in 2 ways: growing oil prices make their fracking industry more competitive and defense contractors like Ratheon stocks will grow 🗽 📈. Israel as a key to the region will strengthen for the US.

🇹🇷 Turkey will stay neutral, they are amassing military forces and industry and neither Iran nor Israel have interest to mess things up with them and divert resources, though Turkey might use this to justify deeper operations inside Syria against PKK forces in the north-east.

Also I expect North Korea to send “secret” observers and assets into Iran as they have done in the Ukraine war, keep looking for them.

Yeah I am a concerned euro watching across the Atlantic. But the ideals of your founding fathers live on in your constitution and legislative branch, which can get the system back on track, right?

Yeah but turning China into a democracy will be harder than returning the US to what it has been, a constitutional law-based society.

This makes no sense bro. At least the US has a potential path to return to a different president/congress in 4 years, since it has a constitution that grant rights to everyone.

Maybe Tariff money? Oh wait they are taxes on domestic importers.

Russia has not the port infrastructure china has. And that would take decades to build, if Russia can even afford it (it costs more money then they have).

We truly live in the best (funniest) timeline.

I can defend my choice of words “historical”: Even the most mundane happenings today might be viewed completely weird practices in the future.

We are witnessing history in the making, people! Keep documenting and writing it down, like the ancient greek historians. The US has radically changed under the new president Trump 2024 -> 2025 and we will need to study the effects on our world and global economy closely. Historic times indeed.

Who cares when the commoners living next to the coal plant breathe radioactive dust? Its cheaper to run for the industrialists short term, less capital investment to build, educate personell and maintain them is required. /s

yes even coal is “cheaper” than nuclear once you disregard polution

I think France is in the best position to lead in these new tariff times, as they retained more economic and strategic independence compared to for example Germany. Time to learn french.

tensions flare over new US tariffs, French President Emmanuel Macron has urged companies to freeze US investments

the “urge” is just the first step I guess?

China has way more exports, so in the short term Trumps tariffs will hurt them more than whatever they counter it with anyways.

Compared to drive with the train on rail without unloading/stopping? Mode change is expensive. So ideally once Iran is liberated the train would just drive from Central Asia to Turkey through Iran without stopping.

The Trans Iranian Railways are already built, but not in use to transport goods from central asia to turkey as far as I understand.

yeah but to avoid Russia & Iran you need to cross the Caspian sea by boat, which is not optimal for costs and profit-margins I assume. Train needs to be unloaded, containers wait in port (Turkmenistan or Kazakhstan I assume) until ship is loaded …

Isnt most of the oil refined from oil sands in Canada? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_sands#Canada

I guess many of the Americans troops are stationed in North-Eastern Syria, where Turkey is going to “protect its interests”, once the American bases are gone …